Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27.70% | 0.00% | 1.19 |
| 1 | 39.70% | 43.40% | 1.70 |
| 2 | 51.80% | 87.10% | 2.22 |
| 3 | 63.80% | 130.40% | 2.73 |
| 4 | 75.90% | 174.10% | 3.25 |
| 5 | 87.90% | 217.40% | 3.76 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 261.10% | 4.28 |
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to: