Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 27.70% 0.00% 1.19
1 39.70% 43.40% 1.70
2 51.80% 87.10% 2.22
3 63.80% 130.40% 2.73
4 75.90% 174.10% 3.25
5 87.90% 217.40% 3.76
6 100.00% 261.10% 4.28

Increase contact rate on 2020-06-18 by variable amounts


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.19
  • % of original R0: 27.7
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.7
  • % of original R0: 39.7
  • % Increase from current: 43.4

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.22
  • % of original R0: 51.8
  • % Increase from current: 87.1

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.73
  • % of original R0: 63.8
  • % Increase from current: 130.4

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.25
  • % of original R0: 75.9
  • % Increase from current: 174.1

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.76
  • % of original R0: 87.9
  • % Increase from current: 217.4

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.28
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 261.1