USC Predict COVID19Social Distancing Scenarios
Scenarios evaluated
Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
- Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
- % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
- % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-06-18) level of social distancing / contact rate
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27.70% | 0.00% | 1.19 |
| 1 | 39.70% | 43.40% | 1.70 |
| 2 | 51.80% | 87.10% | 2.22 |
| 3 | 63.80% | 130.40% | 2.73 |
| 4 | 75.90% | 174.10% | 3.25 |
| 5 | 87.90% | 217.40% | 3.76 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 261.10% | 4.28 |
Increase contact rate on 2020-06-18 by variable amounts
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
Scenario 0
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 1.19
- % of original R0: 27.7
- % Increase from current: 0
Scenario 1
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 1.7
- % of original R0: 39.7
- % Increase from current: 43.4
Scenario 2
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.22
- % of original R0: 51.8
- % Increase from current: 87.1
Scenario 3
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.73
- % of original R0: 63.8
- % Increase from current: 130.4
Scenario 4
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.25
- % of original R0: 75.9
- % Increase from current: 174.1
Scenario 5
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.76
- % of original R0: 87.9
- % Increase from current: 217.4
Scenario 6
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 4.28
- % of original R0: 100
- % Increase from current: 261.1
